Our World
in Data

Daily new estimated infections of COVID-19

Mean estimates from epidemiological models of the true number of infections. Estimates differ because the models differ in data used and assumptions made.Confirmed cases—which are infections that have been confirmed with a test—are shown for comparison.

OurWorldInData.org/covid-models •

Source: ICL (2022); IHME (2022); YYG (2020); LSHTM (2020); WHO COVID-19 Dashboard

Note: This chart shows the latest available model estimates as of 6 July 2023. As of this date, all models have stopped releasing updates. The uncertainty range for each estimate — which can be large — isnot shown here but can be found in the individual model charts.

Related: How are COVID-19 models used to estimate the true number of infections?

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